Let's assume Sir Keir Starmer desires to win the next election. Let's likewise assume he has no desire to be replaced as Prime Minister in the next year or so by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.

He's a political leader, after all, and political leaders enjoy power - Starmer more than the majority of, I would think. I also recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and must be able to weigh up the chances of any policy prospering.

After the battles, compromises and embarrassments associated with accomplishing high office, Starmer has no intent of tossing all of it away. Why, then, does he show every sign of doing so?

On the single concern that may matter most to a majority of voters, he is hurtling towards certain disaster, while rejecting himself any possibility of an escape path. I suggest the boats coming throughout the Channel.

Numbers of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 percent on the same duration last year. An analysis by The Times, utilizing comparable modelling as Border Force, anticipates that 50,000 people will cross the Channel in little boats in 2025. That would be a yearly record - and a stonking fiasco for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are 2 main possible explanations for his behaviour. One is that he is deluding himself. He truly believes numbers will boil down once the steps he has actually taken start to work.

If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing hundreds of millions at the French authorities, improving intelligence and utilizing boosted law enforcement powers - will lower the numbers, that actually is the accomplishment of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already starting poorly to realise that his stratagems will not bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have actually decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A deadly technique.

There have actually been two such examples in recent days. Having stated in an online post on Monday that he felt 'mad' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he believe the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has nothing powerful in his locker, Stephen Glover composes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent fewer than in the previous year

He boasted that 'practically 30,000 people' had been removed from the UK by this Government. Sounds great. But in fact this figure describes all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our country. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent less than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We mustn't accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of informing purposeful fibs. Shall we choose a statistical deception?

The other instance of the Government not being completely directly was the Home Office's claim previously today that there have been more migrants this year since of pleasant weather condition. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my associate David Barrett in yesterday's Mail reveals that in temperate May last year there were 21 'red days' but just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 less than last month. In gentle June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though only 3,007 migrants were recorded crossing the Channel.

The most possible explanation is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send out unlawful migrants to Rwanda had finally cleared relentless judicial blockage. Some, a minimum of, were prevented from crossing the Channel for worry of being packed off to the main African country.

The Rwanda scheme was far from perfect - it was pricey, and liable to legal challenge because the country has an authoritarian federal government - however at least it had some possibility of discouraging migrants. The incoming Labour Government threw away its only possible ways of curbing the boats.

Good for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will carry out to reanimate a plan noticeably comparable to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has absolutely nothing powerful in his locker. Literally absolutely nothing. He can provide additional millions to the French federal government however it won't make much, if any, difference. French police will still loll around on beaches, thinking of the sand castles they made as children, as they enjoy migrant boats setting off for Dover.

The reality is that the French will never ever strain themselves due to the fact that every migrant who leaves their shores is one less migrant for them to fret about. It is naive to envision that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft man who can not comprehend the true wicked Britain is facing

Nor will Sir Keir's idea of improving intelligence and law enforcement be decisive. As for Labour's reported intention to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to prevent bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it ends up being law it is not likely to have much effect on overall numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper beginning to stress as they realise they do not have a single policy most likely to fulfil their pledge of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well need to be.

Three weeks back, Sir Keir was embarrassed after he had actually applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return hubs' only minutes before his Albanian equivalent, standing a couple of feet away, eliminated any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will encourage the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to establish some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and individuals will wonder why Sir Keir cancelled a plan that he is at least partly attempting to revive.

I have actually no specific dream to toss Starmer a lifeline but, as I have actually recommended before, there's one possible path out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take enormous determination and nerve for him to take it.

There are lots of uninhabited British islands off our coast and further afield. Pick one of them. Create a camp similar to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees throughout the War. Build numerous huts - rather than setting up less sturdy camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.

Recruit doctors and officials to examine claims more quickly than occurs at present - and after that return most migrants to where they came from. The expense of establishing such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion invested in 2015 on housing migrants and asylum candidates.

Can anybody inform me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, nevertheless gentle, so it would be a wonderful deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a potentially windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to ward off vexatious legal difficulties we 'd most likely have to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our cautious Prime Minister.

But he doesn't have a better concept. In fact, he hasn't got any ideas at all that are liable to stem the growing numbers of people streaming across the English Channel.

Things can only worsen - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer truly wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting